We at Kyon Energy had the opportunity to talk in an interview with Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger about the current developments and challenges of the energy transition. He is Senior Scientist at the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE), energy expert and initiator of the energy charts.
Kyon Energy: What is the current annual demand for electrical energy in Germany and how has it changed in recent years?
Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger: In 2022, we had a gross electricity consumption of 550 TWh. The following table shows the changes in consumption over the last thirty years.
Where do you think it will develop over the next few years - especially as the electrification of the heating and mobility sector progresses?
Sector coupling will increase electricity consumption, partly because we are electrifying sectors such as transportation and heating. Electricity generation must also increase accordingly. Fraunhofer ISE forecasts that almost 1,400 TWh of electricity will be used by 2045 (see figure).
By 2030, Germany has set itself the goal of sourcing 80% of its electricity consumption from renewable energies and gradually shutting down power plants that use non-renewable primary energy sources. Currently, the share of renewables is around 50%. Do you consider the government's targets to be realistic?
TheGerman government's targets are realistic and are also very much in line with our calculations.
How do you rate the current progress of the energy transition?
After losing almost 10 years due to the electricity price brake introduced by Ministers Altmaier and Rösler, we have a lot of catching up to do. The current government is doing everything it can to ensure that the energy transition progresses as quickly as possible. A lot of the groundwork was already laid in 2022. 2023 must now show that the targets are achievable. The expansion of renewable energies is likely to progress faster than the expansion of the grids.
In your opinion, what are the biggest challenges that need to be overcome in this necessary conversion of the electricity infrastructure?
The biggest challenge is not the technology. We have already come a long way there. I see the challenge as involving the entire population in the energy transition and motivating them to do so. The current dispute in politics shows that the population and politicians can no longer keep up with the planned pace.
How can the integration of renewable energies into the existing electricity grid be improved?
We need more power lines from north to south. Unfortunately, Bavaria blocked this expansion for a long time. But now things are set to move forward. We need short-term storage (battery storage) in the grid to be able to store the midday peak in solar power generation. In addition, more data and measured values are needed to optimize grid operation. We also need a way of limiting the flow of electricity abroad at times when there is a high proportion of renewable energy but insufficient transport capacity.
What do you think needs to change so that we can master the energy transition?
We need a clear commitment to the energy transition from all parties. The constant discussions about importing hydrogen and e-fuels are paralyzing us and keeping us from doing our work.
In recent weeks, the German government has once again increased its focus on the expansion of renewables and wants to drive this forward more intensively. How much installed PV and wind power do we need in Germany to achieve the 80% target?
The German government aims to have installed 215 GW of solar, 115 GW of onshore wind and 30 GW of offshore wind by 2030. This is very much in line with our calculations.
What expansion rates do we need to achieve each year?
The expansion rates for solar energy will be increased to 22 gigawatts (GW) per year. The capacity of onshore wind energy is to increase by up to 10 GW per year. (BMWK)
A lot of electricity from renewable power plants is already being curtailed today as the grids are not able to absorb it locally. In addition, above a certain installed PV and wind capacity, there will be more and more times when renewable electricity covers the entire load in Germany. What role do you ascribe to battery storage systems here?
Battery storage systems are very important for short-term balancing between generation and consumption. That's why we need to expand them significantly by 2030.
What storage capacity do you estimate is necessary to achieve the 80 % target? (In relation to large-scale stationary storage systems)According to our calculations, we will need 250 GWh of battery storage by 2030. Of this, approx. 150 GWh are mobile batteries and approx. 100 GWh are stationary batteries.
What measures should politicians and industry take to further promote the expansion of renewable energies and the use of battery storage systems?
First of all, all the hurdles that have been built up over the last ten years need to be dismantled. This process is already going very well. The ruling political parties need to make a clear commitment to renewable energies and not keep steering the discussion towards old technologies (nuclear energy, combustion engines) or new technologies that are not yet available (SMR, nuclear fusion). These discussions cost a lot of energy, unsettle citizens and slow down the energy transition.
There is a lot of talk in politics about the use of "green hydrogen". This is to be produced with electrolysis plants and later converted back into electricity with fuel cells or in gas turbines. What do you think of this approach? Is it realistic to implement it by 2030?
According to our calculations, we need to focus on the expansion of wind, solar, batteries and grids until 2030. Only then will we have sufficient surpluses for electrolysis to produce renewable (green) hydrogen. However, we will first use this as an important raw material in industry. We will not have enough hydrogen for reconversion into electricity until around 2040. By the way, I am not participating in the color theory of hydrogen. It only serves as a disguise. Green hydrogen is renewable hydrogen and blue hydrogen is fossil hydrogen. The color blue absolutely does not match the fossil origin of the natural gas from which the hydrogen is to be produced.
In our view, the efficiency levels for this type of electricity storage are too poor to temporarily store short-term generation peaks and feed them back into the grid a few hours later. We therefore believe that greater load flexibility and more highly efficient short-term storage are necessary. How do you see this issue?
Yes, we agree. Short-term storage systems are important first. They store solar power from midday into the evening hours and wind power from the night for the morning hours. The expansion of battery storage systems is currently increasing very quickly. If it continues at this rate, the capacity of battery storage systems will be greater than the capacity of pumped storage systems in just two years' time.
What role does the research and development work of the Fraunhofer Institute ISE play in the implementation of the energy transition and what projects are you currently carrying out?
Fraunhofer ISE is working on many different technologies for the energy transition, including the development of solar cells and solar modules, inverters, charging infrastructure for electric cars, regulation and control technology, power grids, heating concepts and heat pumps, building technology, solar thermal power plants, battery technologies, fuel cells and electrolysis, system simulations and much more. We also support industry in decarbonization, both in the heat and electricity sectors.
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